🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."