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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.